Covid Right Now
I have been sceptical on - when will the hole pandemic finish.
The best researched I found looked at the history and the way the pandemics were dealt with back then. The biggest problem with that is humans were not even 5% as globalised as we are right now. Even during the pandemic.
Back then if there was a virus in one country with a hotspot, that country or city were just vacuumed and quarantined. This solved the issue for the hole world as virus was contained and eventually killed.
This time, the virus went viral. Starting in China and then popping up in EVERY SINGLE COUNTRY around the world. That is not normal for any of the pandemics.
This is an outlier, and the way usually researches deal with outliers is either ignore or give them a value based on the norm(rename). This time we can not do that, so the only way is to study the outlier itself as a separate entity.
Okay I probably bored you enough.
What will be happening
My question to my brain is:
- When will Covid end?
- How will Covid finish?
- Will Covid finish, or will it be a status quo?
- Will there be a 90% vaccine against Covid?
- How will the world change after Covid?
I think I can make each of this questions a full article with deep analysis and research. I will try to generalise here. You all probably now ignore Covid articles as they are just rewriting what you already know.
Or this Covid articles just scare the shit out of you. Which is exactly why, I ignore them.
Who knows the future? No one. So please stop telling us that what will happen is inevitable.
I will just operate on guessing and my personal opinion.
When will Covid End and How?
The patterns for each country and worldwide has been showing the second wave.
Let’s look at France. It’s second wave is worse than the first one:
Just this graph is telling you about the pattern of pandemics.
It comes in waves and each one is bigger than the previews one.
Do you remember yourself and the world when the Covid just started? How terrified and scared you were. How it was insanity to even go out of your house at first.
Now parties and hugging is coming back even though more and more people are getting infected each day.
I have noticed this the most in Russia.
I mean Russians are insane anyways, but when it comes to Covid they are probably the most insane.
As soon as the quarantine period ended and self-isolation was lifted, everyone poured out on to the streets. There were charges for not wearing a mask and gloves. Guess what, no-one cared. Everyone went crazy.
Parties, festivals, dinner parties, celebrations and weddings were unstoppable. People wanted to live here and now.
Of course this type of behaviour caused a huge spike in sick people.
I can talk about the falsification of Covid-19 cases in Russia forever, but let’s just say that probably around 50% of population have Covid anti-bodies already. This means that Russia is closing in on the 80% goal. At 80% people will stop infecting each other as the immune people will stop spreading the Covid to those that don’t have anti-bodies and the chain reaction will be stopped. Here is the visualisation:
Answering another question is that there won’t be a vaccine for Covid and that our only hope is for more and more people to become immune. If that is the case we have bad news, as at least 3-6% of population will have to die to achieve that goal. This is horrible of course, but if vaccine doesn’t exist there is no other way.
Another possibility is that the hole pandemic can be contained just like it was contained in China will insane regulations. You report your each and every move. You basically have to say when you eat and when you go to the toilet. That way they are able to put into a quarantine each one a sick person has interacted with and stopping the spread.
The last option I see is the vaccine. Something that will be enforced for each and every human being.
As I see vaccines, we have no idea what is in them. We do not know of side effects as to test them in the long term there needs to be 10-20 years post-factum the test. In case of Russia, the vaccine was developed in 4 months and I would never for the life of me get vaccinated until I had no choice. I would rather use free rider advatage in this case than get messed up because of impatience.
The worst part about vaccines, we have no idea if they even work.
As we know about the flue vaccines, they work only in 80% of the cases, for 10% they don’t even work and for the last 10% they even make things worse.
How are we supposed to know that data for Covid vaccine, when there are no tests, no public data and no confirmations on the results?
So if a real vaccine out, it can end the pandemic. And surely it is not this toy vaccine that is available right now.
Thank you and I hope you are well